ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM

Australia's science future 3-4 May 2000
Full listing of papers

Dr Karl Föger obtained a PhD in physical chemistry from the University of Innsbruck in Austria in 1975. From 1975 to 1999 he worked for the CSIRO Manufacturing Science and Technology Division, where he rose to the position of Chief Research Scientist. He is now the General Manager – Technology Development – for Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd. He is one of the initiators of solid oxide fuel cell technology development in Australia. Dr Föger is the author or co-author of over 100 publications and conference presentations, and several patents. He is a Fellow of the Royal Australian Chemical Institute (RACI) and an adjunct professor at Swinburne University.

Symposium themes - Energy
Energy the challenges before us
by Karl Föger
karlf@cfcl.com.au

Abstract
Energy underpins the economic and social fabric of human existence. The energy business – primary and secondary supply, distribution and use – is probably the world’s biggest. And yet this business and its products have not had benign social, economic and environmental effects on everyone. Further, at least half of the world’s population doesn’t even have access to adequate supplies or forms of energy for their personal needs. The challenges facing our social, business, environmental and product engineers and scientists are:

• efficiency of generation and use of energy forms;
• efficient and cost-effective distribution/supply of energy to end-users;
• minimisation/elimination of negative environmental impacts of energy supply and use; and
• future depletion of today’s key resources.

Researchers have an obligation to maximise their contribution by ensuring that the social, business/economic, environmental and technical data is sound and useful, and that innovations in all these areas are thoroughly analysed and soundly developed.

Energy underpins the social and economic fabric of humanity. It is the world’s largest business. But energy production and consumption have negative environmental effects.

Per capita energy consumption is a measure of national wealth. As such, it is unequally distributed; the industrialised nations consume most. But the developing world is catching up. As global energy consumption increases, the strongest increase is predicted in the developing world.

Where does energy come from? Mostly fossil fuels coal, oil and natural gas. Projections for the growth of renewables is modest unless regulations and incentives force a faster growth. Of the fossil fuels, natural gas is increasing due to its lower environmental impact. The use of coal is steady in industrialised nations but growing in developing nations.

What is energy used for? Stationary uses, mostly in the form of electricity, are lighting, motors, appliances, communications, heating, cooling and refrigeration. Mobile uses are the different forms of transport cars, trucks, buses, railways and ships.

Electricity consumption is predicted to double in the developing world from 1990 to 2020 (Energy Information Agency forecast, 1999). The greatest growth will occur in Asia, in particular China and India.

The per capita annual electricity consumption (kWh) shown here is a clear demonstration of the unequal distribution of energy resources. The per capita consumption in the USA is 150 times that of Bangladesh.

The USA has a similar lead in energy consumption for transport.

As the demand for energy increases, so will the environmental effects. How do we solve this problem? We need to generate, distribute and use energy much more efficiently. We need to eliminate competition between energy types and offer total energy solutions to the consumer. Social factors of energy use must be taken into account technology and the social sciences have to work together more closely rather than pursuing solely technical/engineering solutions.

Greenhouse issues are controlled by the energy intensity of production and use (efficiency) and the carbon intensity of the energy source (what fuel is being used). Energy intensity in the industrialised countries has been coming down steadily, mainly due to more efficient technologies in generation and use, but its rate of decrease has not matched increasing consumption. So carbon emissions are still increasing, but not as quickly as gross domestic product. With financial help from the developed world the developing countries should also be able to cover their increased energy needs with these more efficient technologies.

The structure of the energy industry (gas and electricity) in the developed nations is changing. The traditional electricity industry was made up of large public monopoly utilities with large amounts of reserve capacity to handle peaks in demand, no storage capacity in the system, and a long investment horizon.

The new forces in competitive energy markets are social, economic and environmental. Customers have a choice, new products and services are being offered, the market is becoming more international. The financial risks of constructing large power stations, which are extremely capital intensive and which have very long pay-back periods, can be reduced by the new supply model distributed generation (allows incremental capacity increase).

The factors supporting distributed generation are market pull (customers’ choice), price volatility, environmental concerns, technology push, and government regulation. These create a big challenge to the old energy businesses.

Distributed generation occurs at or near the customer’s site. This now accounts for about 26 per cent of new capacity additions in the USA and Europe (but a significant quantity is in back-up/standby installations) High growth is predicted as facilitating technologies such as fuel cells, microturbines and stirling engines enter the market place.

From the 1930s to the 1980s electricity plants got bigger and the costs of electricity generation dropped due to economies of capacity scale. The trend is now again to smaller units with the price driven by economies of manufacture.

The technological challenges are to find more efficient generation technologies, to use smarter control systems in buildings and machines, and to switch to renewable fuels. Advanced products include cogeneration and hybrid options. A pilot plant in Bavaria demonstrated the use of solar energy to convert water to hydrogen and oxygen which can be stored and then used for heating, cooling and transport. Control systems include smart appliances that reduce fluctuations in energy demand. Similar projects are piloted in other countries. For example, CSIRO is developing a hybrid system.

The financing of research and development in the energy field is changing as companies become more short-term focused, utilities are broken up and privatised and the oil companies also cut their R&D budgets. I believe that energy research is becoming more like information technology and biotechnology. Due to the long lead times the public research organisations will need to assume an important role as incubators for new technology companies.

The long lead times and the financial resources required to bring a new energy technology on the market can best be demonstrated by the company I work for, Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited. The company was created in 1991 with the aim to develop and commercialise solid oxide fuel cells technology, using base technology developed by CSIRO. By the time we enter the market with our first product in 2003 we will have needed over 10 years and $100 million+ in investment. Currently we are in the process of demonstrating a 25 kW system, after which we will start the product development for our first product.

Technology development in the energy field (in the 'new energy world') will need to be conducted highly efficiently and in the shortest possible time. However, this will need a new breed of scientists; good communicators with entrepreneurial flair, to attract funding; and trained in effective project management, to achieve successful outcomes. Science education needs to tailor science courses to provide such graduates.

Session discussion

Does the cost of solar voltaic include the cost of the silicon and the pollution created during manufacture?

David Mills. We have to take that into account in full cost accounting. Biomass and hydroelectricity have social costs, mostly land. These should be in the costs. We need an energy technology-independent assessment.

Should nuclear power be considered as a means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions?

Karl Föger. That is a hotly debated issue. Politically it is not attractive. It is also not attractive on cost the capital and decommissioning costs, and storage of spent fuel, are large. Unless there are strong innovations, it won’t be viable. Germany, the USA and Sweden are phasing out nuclear power. France and Japan are still building.

John Wright. Nuclear is not an issue in Australia. The real problem is cost. Japan is putting in a large number of new plants. Their plans may not be achievable.

What is the ratio between domestic and industrial use of energy? Are there policies to encourage domestic users to be more efficient?

David Mills. There are Commonwealth programs to encourage consumers to lower emissions. There are also State programs.

Karl Föger. In some European countries there are incentives to make houses more energy efficient.

Are there incentives to use roofs to produce electricity?

David Mills. The Federal Government offers a subsidy for solar generation.

Is there any sustainable technology that can be applied to the aviation industry?

David Mills. Pollution is a major cost of travelling overseas; aviation is a bad polluter. There has been no effort to use ethanol as the basis for jet fuel.

What about the use of hydrogen as an energy source, for transport, cooking and so on?

John Wright. Thirty years ago we talked about the hydrogen economy. There is no longer the fear of running out of resources. But there will be a swing back towards the hydrogen economy. We will extract the carbon from hydrocarbons before their use as a fuel, using only the hydrogen. It could also be used in gas turbines. We will produce hydrogen from solar technology. There has been a lot of innovative research.

Karl Föger. Shell has recognised that hydrogen may be the way of the future and set up a subsidiary Shell Hydrogen.

David Mills. Hydrogen is an electricity carrier, not a source. The former uses of hydrogen might be able to be handled by the existing electricity system.

Hydroelectricity appears to have dropped off your list of options.

John Wright. Not at all. This country is limited in its water resources, or it would have more hydro schemes. Hydro has other environmental impacts. There will be no more large dam projects. However, a lot of mini-hydro systems are being set up without building dams or chainsawing land.

David Mills. People in the hydro field see a big increase in its use. However, there are severe restrictions on land.

We need scientists who can not only do research but also communicate and lead projects. Does the education system have a role to play in producing such scientists?

Karl Föger. Engineering courses include project management but very few science courses. Advanced problem solving teaches you how to solve problems most efficiently in minimum times and with minimum resources. Communication needs to become an important part of science courses.

Is the secondary science curriculum boring?

Karl Föger. My comments were geared more towards university education, but of course, interest in science is raised in primary and secondary school. An interesting and broad curriculum in secondary science education will play an important part in attracting able students to a science career.

How can we solve the aircraft fuels problem?

David Mills. From biological sources.

What about heat pumps and greenhouse gas emissions?

David Mills. There are three types of heat pumps: geothermal (using heat in the ground), air and solar. They can address only a fraction of the total thermal market.

Do geothermal energy sources include deep drilling?

David Mills. Yes. Deep drilling hot dry rocks and conventional drilling are different techniques, and one can also use geothermal heat pumps.