ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM

Australia's science future 3-4 May 2000
Full listing of papers

Dr Terry Percival received a BE and PhD from the University of Sydney in 1977 and 1985, respectively. The first ten years of his research career was in the construction of microwave-receiving systems for radio telescopes. In 1987 he joined OTC Australia, where he led R&D groups working on the development of submarine optical fibre communications systems and thin-route satellite communications systems. He joined CSIRO in 1991 and led a research team working on broadband wireless communications systems and high speed wireless LANs. The resulting patented technology forms part of the IEEE 802.11a wireless LAN standard. In 1996 he established new mobile communications and telecommunications networking research groups
at CSIRO.

Symposium themes - IT, telecommunications and control in the Web era

Networks for the information economy
by Terry Percival
Terry.Percival@tip.csiro.au

Abstract
Our world is increasingly dominated by the Internet and electronic commerce. The rise of e-commerce has been triggered by the significant cost savings it enables. These saving are in turn due to the significant reduction in data communications costs resulting from the popularity of the Internet. However, this is just the precursor to a much larger revolution, the dawning of the Information Economy, which will impact our lives as profoundly as the Industrial Revolution. Virtual enterprises will be used to assemble collections of organisations to instantly undertake new business opportunities. In this era almost all business interactions will be information-based and performed electronically. The enabling technology for this will be next-generation networks. Dr Percival will explore the advances in networking technology that will create active networks. These next-generation networks will respond dynamically to changing requirements and tailor the performance of the communications links to the requirements of the end-users.

In 1750 the steam engine revolutionised mining, manufacturing and transport. It created a massive shift in work and social practices. From 1811 to 1816 the Luddites rioted against the changes; they failed to stop them.

The Industrial Revolution is the basis for the world’s most complex machine. What is it? Not the car, that is unreliable. Not CSIRAC, even though it is 50 years old and still works. Not the jumbo jet, which is mostly reliable. Not the space shuttle, which is very complex. Not the Internet, which is complex but most unreliable.

The telephone system is the world’s most complex and reliable machine. It has 2 billion subscribers, each having a device with 25 to 50 moving parts, 50 connectors and 500,000 transistors. The telephone system mixes old and new and it works. Telephony is connection oriented, offering a single path for communication, with no sharing. However, as a data network it is costly and slow.

The Internet is connectionless, with shared paths to carry your message. It is quick to establish new connections and cheap.

Ecommerce is here now. The consumer only needs a modem and an Internet service provider. But that is just the beginning. The information economy is coming. It will have:

• virtual enterprises

• manufacture at point of sale;

• banking, legal and accounting services online.

It is a revolution comparable to the Industrial Revolution. But it is going to happen more quickly. It will change the way we play. Teletravel will come. Entertainment will change. It will change the way we socialise, with Internet chat rooms and email. This will change social values and perceptions of what is important. It will change education. We have more distance learning and virtual universities. It will change health care. There will be more home care, telemedicine, medical image transport. It will change war. Commanders will be able to push a button and remotely control accurate missiles.

Virtual enterprises will be the businesses of the 21st century. It is happening now in the aerospace industry; manufacturers and suppliers are linked by information.

In the transport industry, couriers have laptops in every van, linked to the Internet. Buses will go where the people are, not along set routes.

Perishable foods – fruit, fish, meat, flowers – will be linked to the new transport system, with orders and delivery done through the Internet.

This will be the reverse of the Industrial Revolution. That took cottage industries into large factories. The trend now is towards smaller enterprises, but they will need to move quickly and work together.

Point of sale manufacture means making books, music and clothes in the shop, tailored to the wishes of the buyer.

The building blocks of this new economy exist. We need reliable ways to transmit the power of computers. We need to combine the cost structure of the Internet with the reliability and ubiquity of the telephone system.

Distributed enterprises exist, for example CSIRO. The type of network they use is changing. Formerly we had nailed up links, through Telstra, which were slow. Now we have the World Wide Web, which has to get faster. Voice over the Internet offers cheap phone calls with a fast payback.

Next we will have virtual private networks, where Internet service providers will connect companies like a local area network. But the technology is not available yet. These active, programmable networks will respond on the fly to changing requirements. They need a new mathematics to make them work.

There are opportunities for Australia in software that will run on a network and enterprises that can be set up at the drop of a hat.

The information economy knows no bounds, geography no longer matters. If we don’t get our act together, everyone will buy everything overseas. There is a danger of creating a cargo cult, where we mutter incantations over boxes from overseas. That’s not going to work.

Session discussion

Robotic dogs create a moral dilemma. Is there any danger of humans having wars with robots?

Alex Zelinsky. Will robots take over the world? I have always been suspicious of robotic pets. They may be okay if you look at them as educational devices. But toys can teach the wrong things. Robots are tools that can help you do your job. We are a long way from wilful conscious robots; they cannot yet surprise the designer.

In terms of hardware manufacture, Australia is the poor man of Asia. In 1998 the head of Intel spoke to the Federal Cabinet. Intel built a $2 billion plant in Israel. What is the future of billion dollar activities in Australia?

Roger Kermode. We’ve had the lead, with CSIRAC and the black box flight recorder, but we didn’t exploit them. Companies go where it’s easy to build and get to market. There is also value in ideas that lead to products. If there is a choice between manufacturing and intellectual property, I would rather have intellectual property. Shipping costs from Australia are prohibitive.

Alex Zelinsky. Australia was making computers long before Taiwan. Taiwan now has a computer industry 100 times bigger than ours. We can’t lament opportunities missed, for example mobile phones, we need to look ahead. The application of robots to a field is what we should be looking at. Learn from the past. We should manufacture high-tech big-margin products, not appliances.

Terry Percival. Remember the value chain. Manufacturing is 10 to 30 per cent of the value of a product. We’re working to create intellectual property. I used to build things, now I do it in software. One program, which cost $1 million to develop, brought in $10 million last year for its intellectual property, with nothing manufactured.

How is the power problem in robotics being dealt with? Can renewable energy help?

Alex Zelinsky. The big problem is that robots consume a lot of energy. Solar cells sufficient for a humanoid would cover the Academy’s Dome. Most motors are electric: portable electricity depends on battery technology. There is a lot of work being done on that. Batteries can last a few hours but then they need to be charged. For a mobile robot there are no power points in the field.

Biological power supplies are very efficient: with one kilogram of food a human runs all day. Isn’t this what we should be looking for?

Alex Zelinsky. Yes.

The technology for virtual enterprises already exists, but it can only be marketed to large companies. How is the Internet going to make this technology more accessible? Or will the technology provide a technological advantage to large companies?

Terry Percival. It will be an advantage to large corporations. But smaller companies will link into their systems. Large companies get unwieldy; than small companies can take advantage of the technology.

As geography becomes less important, Australia has an enormous opportunity to reach new markets we couldn’t look at. What areas of business should we be getting into?

Terry Percival. Software is one. India has huge software companies up and running. But Australians don’t buy Australian software. Networking technology offers a huge opportunity. In Canada Nortel took on 10,000 new researchers last year.

Roger Kermode. Motorola has 300 software engineers in Adelaide, and researchers producing intellectual property in other cities. It’s all pure export business.

Anything that removes the middle man is where the big opportunities are. People don’t care where software comes from, they just download it from the net. Getting the inefficiencies out of business is a big thing.

Where does Moore’s law run out of steam and hit an asymptote? When will the physical limitations prevent further advance?

Roger Kermode. Five years ago people said five years. Now people say five years. We don’t really know. Quantum computing is now being explored.

Bob Frater. Moore’s law reviewed different technologies. In the next 15 years, chip makers will find ways to hold to the curve. They have to in order to survive.