Present and future of terrestrial ecosystem models: Modelling climate-vegetation interactions
Professor Toshihiko Hara, Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Japan

Professor Toshihiko Hara received his PhD in Plant Ecology from Kyoto University, Kyoto Japan in 1983. He since has held research positions at Tokyo Metropolitan University and the University of Tokyo, Japan. He has been Professor at the Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University since 1996. His interests include boreal forest dynamics and ecophysiology, and atmosphere-vegetation interaction. He is currently member of the IASC Japanese Working Group.

Presentation (7708kb)

Plants interact with the atmosphere and soil, resulting in energy-mass exchange, and comprise the major part of terrestrial ecosystems. Nowadays, effects of human activities such as population increase and industrialization and environmental changes on the terrestrial ecosystems are major concerns. Changes in the terrestrial ecosystems affect heat and water balance and microclimate near the land surface, resulting in a change in the climate system. Therefore, it is important to elucidate the feedback processes of terrestrial ecosystems and climate system on both regional and global scales. For this purpose, many models have been developed. First, these models will be reviewed. Then problems of the present models will be discussed, especially concerning the boreal climate zone. It is anticipated that the boreal forest that occupies about 1/3 of the world total forest area is most sensitive to climate change such as global warming. We have investigated the mechanisms of how environmental stress affects the regeneration of boreal forest in terms of reproductive strategy, survival strategy and biodiversity. Our new atmosphere-vegetation interaction model incorporating such processes (MINoSGI, Multi-layered Integrated Numerical Model of Surface Physics-Growing Plants Interaction) will be introduced and some simulation results will be presented on the following topics:

1. effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics, evapotranspiration and runoff from the forest ecosystems;
2. effects of vegetation change such as deforestation on the climate system.