SCIENCE OF SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
Background and summary report
Full report (PDF file)
2 August
Opening
Professor Kurt Lambeck
President, Australian Academy of Science
Scientific basis for seasonal prediction
Statistical seasonal climate forecasting in Australia: An historical overview
Dr Roger Stone
Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries
The scientific basis of seasonal climate prediction
Dr Scott Power
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre
Limits to predictability
Predictability limits for seasonal climate variability: Methodologies and current estimates
Dr Arun Kumar
Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Usefulness of seasonal forecasts
Applications of seasonal predictions in Australia
Dr Holger Meinke
Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries
Imperfect forecasts and forecast value
Associate Professor Andrew Vizard
Melbourne University
Towards more valuable seasonal climate forecasts for farmers
Dr Peter McIntosh
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Communicating skilful but uncertain seasonal climate forecasts
Dr Peter Hayman
South Australian Research and Development Institute
3 August
Evaluation of seasonal forecasts
Evaluation of forecast ensembles
Dr Simon Mason
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute of Columbia University
Evaluating the skill of seasonal forecasts: Methods and problems
Dr Robert Fawcett
National Climate Centre
International standards of long-range forecast assessment
Dr Andrew Watkins
National Climate Centre
Impact of climate change and variability on seasonal forecasting
Intra-seasonal and decadal variability: Implications for seasonal prediction
Dr Harry Hendon
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre
Climate change and seasonal predictions
Dr Ian Smith
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Future directions of science
Future directions in the science of seasonal prediction
Dr Oscar Alves
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre
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