SCIENCE AT THE SHINE DOME canberra 7 - 9 may 2008

Symposium: Dangerous Climate Change: Is it inevitable?

Friday, 9 May 2008

Professor Amanda Lynch
School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University

Amanda Lynch's interests lie in Earth system science applied to problems of policy relevance. From 1992 to 2003 she worked in the US, most recently at the University of Colorado. She returned to Australia in 2004. Her approaches include regional and global climate modelling, weather prediction, statistical approaches, and qualitative analysis. Current activities include: joint leadership of the Universities Climate Consortium, councillor of the American Meteorological Society, International Polar Year national representative, and deputy chair of the National Committee for Earth System Science of the Australian Academy of Science.

Vulnerability of socio-ecological systems to a changing climate

Transcript not available.

Abstract
We have reached an understanding that the climate system has a large degree of inertia. The consequence of this inertia is that we are already committed to a certain degree of climate change beyond that already observed, even if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilised today. Thus, it is understood that reductions in our exposure to the risks presented by anthropogenic climate change cannot be achieved through reducing emissions alone. Further, our vulnerability is increasing for reasons that have nothing to do with emissions, including unsustainable and rapid development and economic inequity. It is inevitable that damaging and even catastrophic events, from hurricanes to extinctions, will continue to occur regardless of efforts to mitigate emissions.

It is worth being explicit then in defining our goal: to clarify and secure the common interest. A good approximation to the common interest in response to climate change is to reduce the vulnerability of things valued in the world’s many and diverse communities, and not in the stabilisation of concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere per se. Stabilisation of concentrations is one, but only one, means for reducing vulnerability, and reducing vulnerability is a somewhat different problem in each community, ecosystem, sector and nation.