AAS | Workshop on the science of seasonal climate prediction

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WORKSHOP ON THE SCIENCE OF SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
The Shine Dome, 2-3 August 2006

Background and summary report
Full report (PDF file)

2 August

Opening
Professor Kurt Lambeck
President, Australian Academy of Science

Scientific basis for seasonal prediction

Statistical seasonal climate forecasting in Australia: An historical overview
Dr Roger Stone
Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries

The scientific basis of seasonal climate prediction
Dr Scott Power
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre

Limits to predictability Predictability limits for seasonal climate variability: Methodologies and current estimates
Dr Arun Kumar
Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Usefulness of seasonal forecasts Applications of seasonal predictions in Australia
Dr Holger Meinke
Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries

Imperfect forecasts and forecast value
Associate Professor Andrew Vizard
Melbourne University

Towards more valuable seasonal climate forecasts for farmers
Dr Peter McIntosh
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

Communicating skilful but uncertain seasonal climate forecasts
Dr Peter Hayman
South Australian Research and Development Institute

3 August

Evaluation of seasonal forecasts

Evaluation of forecast ensembles
Dr Simon Mason
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute of Columbia University

Evaluating the skill of seasonal forecasts: Methods and problems
Dr Robert Fawcett
National Climate Centre

International standards of long-range forecast assessment
Dr Andrew Watkins
National Climate Centre

Impact of climate change and variability on seasonal forecasting Intra-seasonal and decadal variability: Implications for seasonal prediction
Dr Harry Hendon
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre

Climate change and seasonal predictions
Dr Ian Smith
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

Future directions of science Future directions in the science of seasonal prediction
Dr Oscar Alves
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre

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