HIGH FLYERS THINK TANK

Extreme Natural Hazards

University of Melbourne, Tuesday 30 October 2007

Executive summary

The growing community awareness about climate change and a perceived increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters¹ prompted the Australian Academy of Science to investigate extreme natural hazards as the topic for a High Flyers Think Tank. The Academy was aware that international events such as the Boxing Day tsunami of 2004, Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the outbreak of SARS and bushfires in California appeared to have increased the public perception that more attention is required to ensure sufficient understanding, early warning, response and recovery for such catastrophic natural disasters.

Natural hazards are here defined as geophysical, atmospheric or hydrological events (eg, earthquake, landslide, tsunami, windstorm, wave or surge, flood or drought) that have the potential to cause harm or loss to human health and safety, the economy, the environment, and the fabric of society at large.² Extreme natural hazards refer particularly to disastrous events, as distinct from less extreme natural hazards such as seasonal bushfires which occur more frequently. In Australia, these less disastrous types of events usually have well established response and recovery practices compared with extreme hazards.

The Think Tank was held in Melbourne at the invitation of the chair of the Regional Group of Victorian Fellows, Professor Tony Klein. It was opened by Academy President, Professor Kurt Lambeck. The keynote address was given by Mr Michael Tarrant of Emergency Management Australia, who outlined the evolution of Australian emergency management theory and postwar practice with some examples from Australia and overseas.

After hearing presentations from other invited speakers, the 65 participants were divided into four breakout groups to identify trends in extreme natural hazards as they related to the framework of PPRR – prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. A summary of the discussion held by each group is presented in this report.

The Think Tank participants concluded that to improve the national preparedness and response for extreme natural disasters, Australia should consider the need to:

• Scope the capacity – that is, determine whether Australia as a nation can pay for the long-term and short-term recovery of a community from a disaster. For instance, is it possible to scope pooling resources into a fund that can only be accessed during extreme natural events?

• Explicitly include extreme events and natural disasters when considering research priorities.

• Allow a greater shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches and, where appropriate, integrate potential climate change impacts.³ For example, earthquakes are unaffected by climate change but drought is influenced by these global changes.

• Ensure better interdisciplinary (especially between scientists and social scientists), interregional and intergovernmental cooperation in order to obtain multidimensional views.

• Undertake more research on how natural systems actually recover from extreme events, such as studying the effect of inundating huge areas with salt water, and consequent impacts on biodiversity.

• Consider the role of diversification as a response, to spread risk and build resilience both socially and environmentally, in preparation for any extreme natural hazards that might occur.

• Better recognise the importance of the long-term perspective.⁴

• Ensure better integration of vulnerability assessments and efforts to identify all variables that could contribute to specific vulnerability patterns.