HIGH FLYERS THINK TANK

Extreme Natural Hazards

University of Melbourne, Tuesday 30 October 2007

Summing up

Chair: Professor Kurt Lambeck, PresAA, FRS

I think there are probably a couple of common themes that are worth tossing around.

I think the question of definitions needs to be given some thought. One man's hazard can be another man's blessing. For example, one of the groups talked about floods as hazards; in some situations the absence of a flood may actually be the hazard. Flood is only a hazard if you do silly things like build on a floodplain. So we need to think about defining hazards – and they may not be the same for some of the physical science areas as they are for some of the biological areas.

Likewise, there is the issue of whether you can prevent hazards or not. In some cases you can; in other cases you can't. There are, I think, different sets of rules, perhaps, or guidelines, emerging from the discussion. So it may not be possible to come up with a single or a simple PPRR framework to discuss the whole debate.

One of the other common points that has come from the breakout groups is the need for improved communication, in particular between scientists and the policy-makers. I endorse very strongly the point that was made about communication with policy-makers having to be substantially driven by the scientists themselves. You cannot leave it to the bureaucrats or for some intermediary body to do it. The scientists themselves have to get involved in that communication process. It is not always an easy thing to do, but I think it needs to be done.

I think the communication between different disciplines is important when it comes to new – supposedly – solutions to, say, energy problems. We have heard a little bit said about biofuels, and certain countries are responding to them very vigorously, but their negative consequences are often not being explored by other groups of scientists. That kind of communication often does not exist, and I think we have to be careful that we don't continue to go down that path.

A point that I don't think has come up as strongly as perhaps it should have has been the international collaboration in hazard issues – for a couple of reasons. One is that some of the hazards we have talked about have origins that are not in Australia. They are offshore. So it is a communication problem, and collaboration with countries where the source of the problem actually originates is important.

In the case of disease, it is easier to stop it from coming into Australia than to do anything with it once it is here. That calls to mind a need for access to laboratories offshore. It is easier to stop bird flu from coming in by having laboratories in Singapore than it is having them in Canberra. That is an issue that I believe should have come up today but perhaps didn't come up as obviously as others.

The final word is to thank you all for participating in this Think Tank. It has been a very good start to the discussion of hazards.

Some conclusions and recommendations for further research and implementation

The Think Tank participants concluded that to improve the national preparedness and response for extreme natural disasters, Australia should consider the need to:

• Scope the capacity – that is, determine whether Australia as a nation can pay for the long-term and short-term recovery of a community from a disaster. For instance, is it possible to scope pooling resources into a fund that can only be accessed during extreme natural events?

• Explicitly include extreme events and natural disasters when considering research priorities.

• Allow a greater shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches and, where appropriate, integrate potential climate change impacts.⁵³ For example, earthquakes are unaffected by climate change but drought is influenced by these global changes.

• Ensure better interdisciplinary (especially between scientists and social scientists), interregional and intergovernmental cooperation in order to obtain multidimensional views.

• Undertake more research on how natural systems actually recover from extreme events, such as studying the effect of inundating huge areas with salt water, and consequent impacts on biodiversity.

• Consider the role of diversification as a response, to spread risk and build resilience both socially and environmentally, in preparation for any extreme natural hazards that might occur.

• Better recognise the importance of the long-term perspective.⁵⁴

• Ensure better integration of vulnerability assessments and efforts to identify all variables that could contribute to specific vulnerability patterns.

References

¹ There is an assumption that extreme events will occur more often, meaning that they will become 'normal' events. This will lead to a need to redefine what is constituted by 'extreme natural hazards'. Despite this perceived trend, there is controversy about whether all natural hazards are actually worsening. For example, recent hazards may simply appear to be more severe or frequent due to advances in media reporting, and there may be additional effects from increasingly dense urban populations in formerly rural landscapes. Damage estimates from natural hazards are also increasing as the 'value' of assets and infrastructure increases (for instance, see de Freitas, C.R. 2002. 'Perceived change in risk of natural disasters caused by global warming'. Mount Macedon, Victoria. www.eird.org/encuentro/pdf/eng/doc14857/doc14857.htm, and compare with Smolka, A. 2006. Natural catastrophes: causes, trends and risk management. The challenge of submarine mass movements – an insurance perspective. Norwegian Journal of Geology, 86:363-372).

² ProVention Consortium. Tools for mainstreaming disaster risk reduction. Collecting and using information on natural hazards. Guidance note 2. www.proventionconsortium.org/themes/default/pdfs/tools_for_mainstreaming_GN2.pdf.

³ Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2007. Climate change in Australia. www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/resources.php: 'droughts are likely to become more frequent, particularly in the south-west; high-fire-danger weather is likely to increase in the south-east; tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense; and sea levels will continue to rise.'

⁴ Nott, J., 2006. Extreme Events: A Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment. Cambridge University
Press. 300pp.

⁵ It includes activities such as policy and planning, legal and regulatory systems, resources and capacities, integration and development, institutional mechanisms, capacities and structures, political commitment, accountability and participation.

⁶ Australian Academy of Science, March 2007. Fenner Conference on the Environment – Water, population and Australia's urban future. www.science.org.au/events/fenner2007/index.htm.

⁷ Furedi, F. 6 September, 2005. The blame game: Pain, but should there also be blame? - Who is responsible for natural disasters? God, nature, governments? BBC News. news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4217024.stm.

⁸ For example, Lerner-Lam, A. 2007. Assessing global exposure to natural hazards: Progress and future trends. Environmental Hazards, 7:10-19.

⁹ Smolka, A., 2006. Natural catastrophes: causes, trends and risk management. The challenge of submarine mass movements – an insurance perspective. Norewegian Journal of Geology, 86: 363-372.

¹⁰ For example, Lerner-Lam, A., 2007. Assessing global exposure to natural hazards: Progress and future trends. Environmental Hazards, 7:10–19

¹¹ Smolka, A., 2006. Natural catastrophes: causes, trends and risk management. The challenge of submarine mass movements – an insurance perspective. Norwegian Journal of Geology, 86:363-372.

¹² Australian Academy of Science, 28 July 2006. The changing risk environment: ideas for a new Australian policy framework for handling risks. www.naf.org.au/28july06.pdf.

¹³ Ibid.

¹⁴ Australian Academy of Science, 28 July 2006. The changing risk environment: ideas for a new Australian policy framework for handling risks. www.naf.org.au/28july06.pdf, p. 19.

¹⁵ Sources: Thistleton, J., 17 November 2007. Mining for IT riches. The Canberra Times; 433 Location Aware Technology, www.433.com.au.

¹⁶ Emergency Management Australia, www.ema.gov.au; Australian Academy of Science, 28 July 2006. The changing risk environment: ideas for a new Australian policy framework for handling risks. www.naf.org.au/28july06.pdf.

¹⁷ Lewis, C., 2006. Risk management and prevention strategies. The Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 21(3):47-51.

¹⁸ ProVention Consortium. Tools for mainstreaming disaster risk reduction. Collecting and using information on natural hazards. Guidance note 2. www.proventionconsortium.org/themes/default/pdfs/tools_for_mainstreaming_GN2.pdf.

¹⁹ Emdad Haque, C. and Burton, I., 2005. Adaptation options strategies for hazards and vulnerability mitigation: an international perspective. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
10:335-353.

²⁰ Douglas, J., 2007. Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 7:283-288.

²¹ Hale, A.R. and Glendon, A.I., 1987. Individual Behaviour in the Control of Danger. Elsevier.

²² Gifford, S.M., 1986. The meaning of lumps: A case study of the ambiguities of risk. In: Janes, C.R., Stall, R., Gifford, S.M., 1986 (eds), Anthropology and Epidemiology: Interdisciplinary Approaches to the Study of Health and Disease. Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel.

²³ Australian Academy of Science, 28 July 2006. The changing risk environment: ideas for a new Australian policy framework for handling risks. www.naf.org.au/28july06.pdf.

²⁴ Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2003. Emerging Systemic Risks in the 21st Century: An Agenda for Action. 290p.

²⁵ Etkin, D. and Leman Stefanovic, I., 2005. Mitigating natural disasters: the role of eco-ethics.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10:467-490.

²⁶ Murphy, C. and Gardoni, P., 2006. The role of society in engineering risk analysis: a capabilities-based approach. Risk Analysis, 26(4):1073-1083.

²⁷ Adger, W.N. et al., 2005. Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters. Science, 308:1036-1039.

²⁸ Boin, A. and McConnell, A. 2007. Preparing for critical infrastructure breakdowns: the limits of crisis management and the need for resilience. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 15(1):50-59.

²⁹ Barnes, P., 2002. Approaches to community safety: risk perception and social meaning. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, Autumn issue, p.15-23.

³⁰ Figure sourced from: Smolka, A., 2006. Natural catastrophes: causes, trends and risk management.
The challenge of submarine mass movements – an insurance perspective. Norwegian Journal of Geology, 86:363-372.

³¹ Arnold, M. et al. (eds), 2006. Natural disaster hotspots: case studies. Disaster Risk Management Series,
No. 6. The World Bank Hazard Management Unit, Washington, DC, 184p.

³² Dilley, M. et al., 2005. Natural disaster hotspots: A global risk analysis. Disaster Risk Management Series, No. 5. The World Bank Hazard Management Unit, Washington, DC, 132p.

³³ Beer, T. 2007. The Natural Hazards Theme of the International Year of Planet Earth. Natural Hazards, 42:469-480.

³⁴ International Risk Governance Council, July 2005. Basic concepts of risk characterisation and risk governance. Further information available at: www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html.

³⁵ Australian Academy of Science, 28 July 2006. The changing risk environment: ideas for a new Australian policy framework for handling risks. www.naf.org.au/28july06.pdf.

³⁶ Emdad Haque, C. and Burton, I., 2005. Adaptation options strategies for hazards and vulnerability mitigation: an international perspective. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
10:335-353.

³⁷ Australian Academy of Science, 12 September 2006. Australia's science and technology priorities for global engagement. A submission to the Prime Minister's Science, Engineering and Innovation Council. www.science.org.au/reports/12september06.pdf.

³⁸ Stock, S., November 2007. Virtual disaster help. Australian R&D Review, p.10.

³⁹ Australian Academy of Science, March 2007. Fenner Conference on the Environment – Water, population and Australia's urban future. www.science.org.au/events/fenner2007/index.htm.

⁴⁰ Halvor Teigen, K. and Brun, W., 2005. Verbal expressions of uncertainty and probability. In Hardman, D. and Macchi, L. (eds), Thinking: Psychological Perspectives on Reasoning, Judgment and Decision Making. Chapter 7, pp.123-145. John Wiley and Sons.

⁴¹ International Risk Governance Council, October 2006. White Paper on Managing and Reducing Social Vulnerabilities from Coupled Critical Infrastructures. www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_WP_No_3_Critical_Infrastructures.pdf.

⁴² Australian Academy of Science, 28 July 2006. The changing risk environment: ideas for a new Australian policy framework for handling risks. www.naf.org.au/28july06.pdf, p. 26, 27, 29.

⁴³ Ibid.

⁴⁴ Middelmann, M.H. (Ed) 2007. Natural Hazards in Australia. Identifying Risk Analysis Requirements. Geoscience Australia, Canberra.

⁴⁵ Australian Academy of Science, March 2007. Fenner Conference on the Environment – Water, population and Australia's urban future. www.science.org.au/events/fenner2007/index.htm.

⁴⁶ International Risk Governance Council, October 2006. White Paper on Managing and Reducing Social Vulnerabilities from Coupled Critical Infrastructures. www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/IRGC_WP_No_3_Critical_Infrastructures.pdf.

⁴⁷ Mr Jim Gould, Ensis, 2 November 2007. New guidelines for predicting fire behaviour. CSIRO Media Release. Ref: 07/223. www.csiro.au/news/ps3n8.html.

⁴⁸ Figure sourced from: Alexander, D., 2007. Making research on geological hazards relevant to stakeholders' needs. Quaternary International, 171–172:186–192.

⁴⁹ Australian Labor Party, 5 February 2007. Media Statement: Preparing Australia for Climate Change-Related Natural Disasters. http://www.alp.org.au/media/0207/ms052.php?mode=print

⁵⁰ Australian Labor Party, 5 February 2007. Media Statement: Preparing Australia for Climate Change-Related Natural Disasters. http://www.alp.org.au/media/0207/ms052.php?mode=print

⁵¹ NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center is using state-of-the-art Internet tools for natural hazards education, public outreach, and access to natural hazards data. See: Dunbar, P.K., 2007. 'Increasing public awareness of natural hazards via the Internet', Natural Hazards, 42(3): 529-536.

⁵² Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2007. Climate change in Australia. www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/resources.php: 'droughts are likely to become more frequent, particularly in the south-west; high-fire-danger weather is likely to increase in the south-east; tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense; and sea levels will continue to rise.'

⁵³ Nott, J. 2006. Extreme Events: A Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment. Cambridge University
Press. 300p.

Acronyms

Useful websites

Australian Academy of Science

Emergency Management Australia

Geoscience Australia

ICSU

International Risk Governance Council

MapData Sciences

National Academies Forum

ProVention Consortium

UNESCO

Year of Planet Earth