Media releases

PREDICTING NATURAL EVENTS
15 September 2005

Throughout history, humans have been searching for a way to foretell the future. In recent times the quest has been taken up by science. The Australian Academy of Science's new Nova: Science in the news topic, 'Predicting natural events', has the latest information at www.science.org.au/nova.

Even though natural disasters have occurred many times in the past, we still have difficulty predicting when they will occur. In the case of major natural events – such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, violent floods, disease epidemics, tsunami, drought and soil erosion – failure to predict the future can mean death, suffering and loss for millions of people.

The science of predicting such catastrophic events uses several conceptual ideas. Two of the most important are thresholds and pattern dynamics. A threshold is a point beyond which a particular outcome – perhaps a catastrophe – becomes inevitable. The threshold may lie some distance from the catastrophe itself, so that if the threshold point can be recognised and avoided, then the catastrophe can be averted.

A tool for recognising thresholds is pattern dynamics. This involves identifying the characteristic behaviour of a system as a set of patterns in space and time, and finding the 'fingerprints' of these patterns near threshold points.

Scientists working with thresholds and pattern dynamics use mathematics and computers to model the factors that drive rare but important events. By running the models forward in time, scientists can identify the characteristic patterns that occur near threshold points, which give warning signs that thresholds are about to be crossed – when things will shift dramatically from their present state to a possibly dangerous or unstable one.

More information on this topic is available on the Australian Academy of Science's Nova: Science in the news website at www.science.org.au/nova. A glossary, student activities, further reading and annotated links to relevant websites are also available.

This topic was supported by the Sir Mark Oliphant International Frontiers of Science and Technology Conference Series (oliphant.org.au), funded by the Australian Government under the International Science Linkages Programme. The principal sponsor of Nova: Science in the news is the Commonwealth Bank Foundation (www.commbank.com.au/foundation). The Australian Foundation for Science is also a supporter of Nova.