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Published by
 Australian Academy of Science
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Calculating the threat of tsunami
Box 2 | The disappearance of an ancient civilisation
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The disappearance of the Minoan civilisation on the island of
Crete in the Aegean Sea about 3500 years ago has intrigued archaeologists
for decades. Most agree that it was somehow related to the massive
eruption of a volcano on the island of Santorini some 120 kilometres
away, but the exact mechanism of the destruction has long been
disputed.
One theory is that the Minoans could have been wiped out by falling
ash, another is that they were destroyed by a tsunami caused by
the volcano. This latter theory is generally held to be more plausible
than the first, but until recently there has been little evidence
to support it.
Joe Monaghan, a mathematician at Monash University in Melbourne,
Victoria, used a computer-based mathematical modelling technique
called smoothed particle hydrodynamics to help clarify
the mystery. He showed that lava spewed out by the volcano could
indeed have generated a tsunami. He also calculated that, given
the peculiar sea-bed topography between Santorini and Crete, the tsunami could have produced waves up to 40 metres high.
By modelling the topography of Crete, Monaghan showed that waves
of that height would have flooded large chunks of agricultural
land on the island and destroyed dwellings. Scientists are now
speculating that soil salinisation caused by the inundation, coupled with the destruction of fish stocks due to pollution from
the volcano, may have caused food shortages on Crete that eventually
led to a revolt by peasants and the ultimate demise of the civilisation.
Further reading
- New Scientist, 8 January 2005, page 9
Quakes left Cretan civilisation high and dry (by Kate Ravilious)
- New Scientist, 21 June 1997, pages 36-39
Who killed the Minoans (by Bob Johnstone)
Related site
Other boxes
Box 1. What caused the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004?
Box 3. The warning system in the Pacific
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