Population and environment – what's the connection?
Box 3 | Immigration and population growth
Immigration – one source of population growth – results in more people to consume goods and services. This larger market is better for local businesses. Also, many migrants bring money into the country and some start up businesses that may offer employment. Many economists argue that, if carefully controlled, this can benefit the nation’s economy and hence, indirectly, our quality of life.
However, some people have used economic factors to argue against big population increases for Australia. We still largely make our way in the world by exporting minerals, along with fibre and food. They argue that, unless our level of domestic consumption falls drastically, a much larger population would mean less meat, cereals or other foodstuffs to export. (The domestic consumption of fibre and minerals would still remain very low compared with the proportion exported.) Economists reject such a view because it assumes that there is a fixed level of production, when experience shows instead that output is quite responsive to growth in demand.
Environmental scientists point out that Australia is already suffering considerable damage to its soils, waterways, coastal zones and natural habitats through intensive agriculture, urban expansion, industrial development and the ever-increasing demand for goods and services. Groups who oppose population increase on environmental grounds suggest that even the present Australian population cannot be indefinitely sustained at its present rate of consumption by the renewable resources of the continent.
Those who hold this view are sometimes criticised for being against migrants. Whatever the validity of the idea of no further population growth, being against continued immigration does not necessarily mean being against migrants already here. Each migrant who comes to Australia is of value and contributes to our society. This is also true of each new baby born, but in itself it is not a reason for increasing the birth rate. Of course, immigration to Australia does not increase the global population problem in the way that births do; and it certainly eases the plight of those individuals who may settle here from countries where the standard of living and opportunities for a full life are less than our own. It also eases environmental pressure in the home countries of migrants.
More recently, there is a growing trend for Australians to leave the country, either long-term or indefinitely. Those people leaving tend to be younger and more educated than the general population, leading to the expression 'brain drain'.
International immigration
Some argue on humanitarian grounds that Australia should help by taking people from overcrowded countries. However, the number of migrants that Australia takes does virtually nothing to ease the overpopulation elsewhere in the world. Our net immigration intake of 154,225 in 2002-03 was 0.1 per cent of the 73 million extra people in the world that year.
The scale of international migration has increased in recent years. The annual flow of migrants on a global scale is estimated to be between 5 and 10 million people. The pattern of international migration differs between world regions. The largest immigrations in the mid-1990s were from Latin America and Asia into North America and from Eastern Europe, the countries of the former Soviet Union and North Africa into Northern and Western Europe. There is also a significant movement of people within Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Using immigration in population projections
Demographers can estimate Australia's future population size by using different levels of net immigration (ie, the total number of people settling permanently in Australia minus the total number of people leaving Australia permanently).
For example, if the net immigration figure each year is 100,000 then Australia's population will be 26.4 million by 2051. If immigration had ceased in 2002, then Australia's population would decline to 19.8 million by 2051. (These predictions are based on the assumption of below replacement fertility among the resident population. This is when the number of babies being born is less than that required to replace the parents.)
Other population pressures on our environment
Population pressures on our environment come not only from a resident population, they also come from
- a global population, where there is demand for Australian-based production;
- overseas visitors to Australia, especially tourists but also business visitors, students and guest-workers. These numbers are many times that of immigrants.
Boxes
Box 1. Trends in world population
Box 2. Exponential growth
Related sites
Fact sheet index (Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs, Australia)
Leaving Australia: A new paradigm of international migration (Parliament of Australia, Parliamentary Library)
Human population – fundamentals of growth: Effect of migration on population growth (Population Reference Bureau, USA)
World migration 2003: Managing migration – challenges and responses for people on the move (International Organization for Migration)
Page updated June 2007.