Predicting natural events
Further reading
August 2010
The Science of Climate change: Questions and Answers.
A document summarising the current understanding of climate change science for non-specialist readers.
March 2006
The complexities of modelling climate change (by Michael Manton)
Attempts to explain what is involved with modelling climate change.
April 2006, pages 26-29
Can science foretell the future (by Julian Cribb)
Reports on the analysis of thresholds to predict earthquakes, floods, stockmarket crashes and other major events.
June 2005, pages 32-34
The science of complex systems (by John Finnigan)
Explains how scientists are probing the complex interactions that influence the behaviour of bushfires, cyclones, the stock market and even electricity prices.
August 2004, pages 29-31
The day after tomorrow (by Peter Kershaw and Chris Turney)
Provides evidence of catastrophic global climate change in the Atherton tablelands.
January/February 2005, page 4
Weather is warmer and wetter (by Stephen Luntz)
June 2004, page 37
It's getting wetter
Summarises the conclusions from a meeting of climatologists that the world is getting wetter as it warms.
20 September 2006
Predicting the future: It's becoming a science (by Julian Cribb)
Reports on the analysis of thresholds to predict earthquakes, droughts and epidemics.
July 2008, page 7
Crossing thresholds in times of change (by Jonathan Rhodes)
Provides principles for managing biodiversity in the face of climate change thresholds.
No. 130, 2006, pages 28-31
A view of dangerous climate change (by Steve Davidson)
Looks at the possibility of climate change reaching a tipping point, beyond which it is impossible to manage.
2 December 2004, pages 559-560
Hot news from summer 2003 (by Christoph Schär and Gerd Jendritzky)
Asks whether the European heatwave in 2003 was a rare meteorological event or a first glimpse of climate change to come.
11 September 2003, page 111
Analysis pours cold water on flood theory (by Quirin Schiermeier)
Describes new analyses of historical flood data suggesting that recent floods in Germany were not evidence of a general trend towards extreme weather.
21 August 2003, pages 867-867
Heatwave underlines climate-model failures (by Declan Butler)
Explains why new models are needed to predict extreme weather events.
11 October 2001, pages 591-596
Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems (by Marten Scheffer, Steve Carpenter, Jonathan A. Foley, Carl Folke and Brian Walker)
This technical article suggests that strategies for sustainable management of ecosystems should focus on maintaining resilience.
1 March 2008, page 11
Quiet period could warn of impending earthquakes (by Kate Ravilious)
Reports on the change in radio waves prior to earthquakes.
27 January 2007
Can you believe the weather? (by Michael Brooks)
Looks at the science of predicting the weather.
18 January 2007
2100: A world of wild weather (by Kate Ravilious)
The first maps of their kind show how climate change will turn rare disasters into regular events.
19 August 2006, pages 8-9
Glaciers heading for point of no return (by Jessica Marshall)
Suggests that if Greenland's ice carries on melting at the same rate, it could reach a critical threshold by the century's end.
1 July 2006, page 50-51
You can't predict life's black swans (by Michael Bond)
An interview with applied statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb about rare, high impact events.
10 June 2006, pages 44-47
Raiders of the lost storms (by Emma Young)
Looks at the long term records to answer the question 'Will a warmer world bring more hurricanes?'
26 November 2005, pages 46-48
The iceman cometh (by Fred Pearce)
An interview with Lonnie Thompson about his belief that the tropics are the source of Earth's climate variability.
10 September 2005, pages 8-9
The day their luck ran out (by Andy Coghlan and Justin Mullins)
Asks why New Orleans was so ill-prepared for hurricane Katrina.
29 January 2005, page 6
Quake, flood, fire. Will we be ready? (by Emma Young)
Discusses the need for early warning systems for extreme natural hazards.
10 September 2003
Severe floods in Europe not rising (by Jenny Hogan and Carolyn Fry)
Describes new evidence linking some of Europe's worst ever flooding to poor land management practices.
21 September 2002, page 4
Africans go back to the land as plants reclaim the desert (by Fred Pearce)
Describes areas of Africa that are regreening after years of drought conditions.
June 2006
Hurricane force (by Roger Smith)
Discuses whether the recent increase in the number of intense storms is linked to global warming.
24 December 2004, pages 2197-2198
Ecological versus climatic thresholds (by Mark Maslin)
Defines the differences between ecological and climatic thresholds.
28 March 2003, pages 2005-2010
Abrupt climate change (by R.B. Alley, J. Marotzke, W.D. Nordhaus, J.T. Overpeck, D.M. Peteet, R.A. Pielke, Jr., R.T. Pierrehumbert, P.B. Rhines, T.F. Stocker, L.D. Talley, and J.M. Wallace)
Reviews past abrupt climate change events and the role of thresholds in predicting future events.
July 2007, pages 26-33
Warmer oceans, stronger hurricanes (by Kevin Trenberth)
Looks at the evidence linking global warming to cyclone activity.
November 2006, pages 55-61
Reviving dead zones (by Laurence Mee)
Looks at runaway plant and algae growth in coastal areas caused by nutrient excess, an example of an event with a threshold.
17 March 2006
Statistical analysis bolsters theory linking warmer oceans to stronger hurricanes (by David Biello)
Reports that new analysis suggests a link between global warming and stronger hurricanes.
18 October 2005
Climate model predicts extreme changes for US (by Tracy Staedter)
The latest climate model of the US predicts higher temperatures, heavier rainfalls and shorter winters than previously expected.
7 March 2005
New model predicts timing and intensity of solar storms
Reports that a mathematical model can predict solar storms with improved accuracy.
January 2005
Punctuated disequilibrium (by Claudio Angelo)
Predicts that occasional but extreme climate could turn parts of the Amazon rain forest into dry savannas.
January 2005
Climate change desiccating the planet, researchers conclude
Describes a study suggesting that the portion of the planet affected by extreme drought has doubled in the last thirty years.
Page updated August 2010.