feeding a hot, hungry world - agriculture in the face of climate change
Box 2 | It's agriculture, but not as (where) we know it
Changing climatic conditions will most likely change the face of agriculture, shifting the regions of the world where certain crops are able to grow. In some extreme cases, we may see the entire globe become inhospitable to certain species.
Farmers in the USA corn belt are already struggling under prolonged drier conditions, with some Kansas farmers shifting from the traditional crop of corn to sorghum, a less water demanding crop. Meanwhile, around 1100 km north, in Manitoba, Canada, the cropping area devoted to corn production has nearly doubled over the past ten years. Greenland can now produce vegetables that really don’t belong in an Arctic region.
Source: stock.xchng www.sxc.hu
Climate change is also posing a threat to our coffee supply. We consume 1.6 billion cups of coffee a day, and the species that gives us most of our coffee, Coffea arabica, is a fussy species native to the highlands of Ethiopia. It prefers temperatures between 18 and 21°C, and the quality of the beans deteriorates above 23°C. If subjected to long periods of more than 30°C the plant loses its leaves and tumours grow on its stems. The water requirements for coffee are also very specific – it needs to be dry to build up buds, and then wet to bring on the flowers, but if it’s too wet, the fruit doesn’t set. The berries then require water to grow and mature.
Increased temperatures and changing rainfall patterns present a serious problem to coffee production. Indeed, some areas of East Africa and Central America are already struggling to maintain their coffee output. Researchers are working on breeding more resilient varieties of coffee, perhaps augmented with genes from the tougher (but also more bitter tasting) Robusta species (Coffea canephora).
Another favourite beverage, wine, will also encounter challenges in the face of climate change. Increasing temperatures will see current growing areas become unsuitable for many varieties, and we will most likely see a shift in the types of grapes grown in particular regions. Cooler climate varieties, such as pinot noir or sauvignon blanc, may no longer be produced on mainland Australia, but find a home in Tasmanian vineyards. French wine producers, as well, have seen warmer temperatures cause earlier flowering, budburst, and harvests, with the end product of less acidic, more sugary and more alcoholic (and often less palatable) wines. The European wine industry, which revolves around very specific regional variations, is likely to see some huge and unwelcome changes in the coming years.
Box 1. Would you like cyanide with that?
Box 3. Australian agriculture over time.
Posted May 2013.